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Vision

Briefing

Vision

Pacing toward Ashton's North Star

Horizon 1 · Rest of 2026 — the operating goal

actuals as of 2026-07-16
170 → 250 paying members by 2026-12-31. Net +80 · pace +11–13/mo.

Loading pace…

━ actual– – predicted▢ low–high band– – – 250 goalsource: enrollment roster (canonical) + seasonal index · history re-indexed to roster basis
MonthLowPredictedHighSeason
Jul176195215summer soft · thin data
Aug176198220summer churn peak · thin data
Sep190216241back-to-routine · thin data
Oct207228248steady fall
Nov213236258holiday creep
Dec216241265holiday dip

Seasonality-aware forecast from 191 paying members (Jun): our trend de-seasonalized (~23.5 joins/mo, ~6.1% monthly churn), re-shaped by an industry seasonal index. The band is a confidence cone — it widens further out and wider still over Jul–Sep, months we've never observed here (marked thin data). By Dec: 216–265, predicted 241 — the 250 goal sits inside the cone (on track).

Members to go
+80
Needed / month
+11–13/mo
Months left
—
Current members
192
enrollment roster (canonical)

Investment ~$38.9K cash across 7 months. Confidence: ~88% of 250 if all 5 levers commit.

The 5 levers

Double Meta paid spend (Jun–Aug)
Target: ~$160/day
Now $71/day
Martine's Meta close rate — the non-negotiable
Target: 4.5% → 10%+ by Aug 31
Tracked on the Sales tab
Extend bingo to all members to cut summer churn
Target: 10% → 6.5%
Now 0.00%
Sept fat-loss challenge, bigger than Apr–May
Target: run + beat spring
Q4 raffles + tighter onboarding + founder rituals
Target: stack

Horizon 2 · 5-year — the 3-location base

The H1 → H2 gate (all must hold before the Santa Rosa search)

Hold 200–250 members for 3–6 sustained months
Target: 200–250 × 3–6 mo
192 now (need 200–250 sustained)
Profit at that base
Target: $15–20K/month
$0/mo now
L1 playbook transferable (not founder-dependent)
Target: documented SOPs

Replication readiness · 2/8 gates

Profitability streakFAIL
6 / 12
Member growthPASS
35.38%
ChurnUNKNOWN
Contribution marginPASS
70.77% / 30%
Cash runwayFAIL
28.8d / 60d
Documented SOPsUNKNOWN
Key-person testUNKNOWN
200-member gateFAIL
197 / 200
2027Searching for / building out location 2
End of 2028Location 2 open — Santa Rosa
2029–2030Location 3 — Petaluma

Per-site target: $750K–$1.0M/yr each.

Horizon 3 · 10-year — scale to exit, then retire (~2036)

Valuation North Star
$10M+
then Mike retires
3-site revenue target
$2.25M–$3.0M/yr
Annual run-rate now
$391,304
from latest CFO analysis

After the 3-location base proves the model, accelerate expansion and build to a $10M+ valuation — at which point Mike retires.

Goals: Ashton's North Star — notes/ashton-growth-vision.md (owner: Mike, steward: Ashton) (updated 2026-06-02). Actuals: latest committed KPI sheet + Angie's (CFO) monthly analysis + Ashley's Meta digest. Member counts are the canonical paying base from the enrollment roster (see notes/member-count-canonical.md).